Iran removes sea mines from Strait of Hormuz, commits to keeping it open

Iran has started removing sea mines from the Strait of Hormuz and agreed to keep the waterway open. The odds of the UK sending warships through the strait by April 30 now sit at 8% YES, down from 12% a week ago.

The mine removal follows a pause in Operation Epic Fury and comes during ongoing peace talks. With Iran committing to keep the strait open, the perceived need for countries to dispatch warships has dropped. The UK market holds at 8% YES with 14 days until resolution.

Odds for other countries sending warships (Canada, India, Pakistan, France) all match the UK market at 8% YES. Daily trading volume is $2,086, and it takes only $478 to shift odds by 5 points, which means single trades can move the market easily.

Iran’s mine clearance points toward reduced tensions, but the U.S. still maintains a naval blockade of Iranian ports, and full resolution depends on broader nuclear negotiations. Betting YES requires conviction that geopolitical dynamics will reverse sharply in the next two weeks. A YES share at 8¢ pays $1 if the UK sends warships by April 30, a 18x return.

Watch for statements from the UK Ministry of Defence or IRGC actions. Any shift in military posture or a diplomatic breakthrough could move these thin markets quickly.

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