Iranian oil tankers bypass US blockade, move 11M barrels through Sea of Oman

Iranian oil tankers have moved 11 million barrels through the Sea of Oman despite a U.S. naval blockade. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market for April 30 sits at 6% YES, down from 10% a week ago.

Traders reacted to news of Iran’s “shadow fleet” bypassing U.S. naval efforts, which points to persistent difficulties in achieving regular traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The April 30 market is at 6%, showing clear skepticism about a swift resolution. The May 31 market, by contrast, trades at 81.5%.

Volume over the last 24 hours is at $14,188 in actual USDC traded, with the largest move being a 1-point drop at 8:42 AM. Order book depth is thin: only $448 is needed to move prices 5 points, making the market susceptible to swings from a few large trades.

Iranian tankers circumventing the blockade exposes the difficulty of enforcing a complete halt to oil exports. In the April market, a YES share at 6¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 16.67x return. That bet requires believing the situation will stabilize within 14 days.

Watch for diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations. Hegseth’s next statement or changes in Trump’s policy could move these odds significantly.

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